Market Overview
Wheat / Barley / Maize
In the latest monthly report, the USDA decreased the world wheat ending stocks fractionally by 0.74MT. Despite the drop, global ending stocks remain at a five year high.
Global Wheat production remains at record levels despite the USDA cutting production back to 841.8MT.
Argentina is expected to have a record wheat crop this year at 27.8MT.
All major exporting countries including Australia, Canada. Russia, US and EU have all produced larger crops than expected.
The UK could see a crop of up to 13.5MT this year if we see yields improve from last year.
Barley remains in tight supply with growers reluctant to sell at the current domestic price.
Weather conditions will remain an important influence in the coming weeks. Barley plantings are expected to fall to their lowest level in more than ten years. Any disruption to spring drilling could introduce price volatility.
Global Maize production has increased to 1296MT for 2025/2026. However, the USDA projects global demand to outstrip production with projects currently at 1301MT.
Ukraine maize production has increased to 29MT, edging back towards the pre-war levels. However, damage to Ukraine’s ports and infrastructure means exports of maize have dropped from 29.5MT in 2024 to a projected 22MT for 2026.
Proteins
Global soybean production remains at a records level of 428MT.
The USDA report increased Brazil’s soybean production by 2MT to 180MT.
Long-term stocks are expected to remain plentiful with both South American crops arriving in the UK for late spring. Stocks may become tight between now and when the vessel arrives.
EUDR was delayed to January 2027 back in December. Discussions are still ongoing on how to implement the regulation in the UK.
Rapemeal prices remain elevated for the short-term due to the closure of the Erith. Two weeks ago the HSE closed Erith who produce and estimated 50KT of rapemeal per month. This has left a large hole in the market and caused prices to increase significantly.
It is unclear as the when the site ill become operational again so we expect to see short-term market volatility to continue.
Long-term supplies of rapemeal remain stable with prices being lower in late summer when new crop stocks arrive.
