Market Overview
Geopolitics continue to influence agricultural markets.
The conflict in the Middle East and the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz continues to affect fuel, freight rates and energy prices. This has left many growers across the world with difficult cropping decisions, with many finding it difficult to source fertiliser and fuel.
Trade talks continue between the US and China. With a commitment to purchase $17 billion of US Agricultural products in 2026 and 2027, markets have firmed in recent days as this would represent a 100% increase v 2025.
The latest USDA report reduced global wheat production by 24.7MT. Large cuts were made to US wheat production due to ongoing drought conditions in key growing areas.
Old crop UK wheat has also firmed due to lack of sellers with the possibility of higher prices.
We are in a key growing stage in many global areas so the next few months will be key to market direction. Russia and Ukraine are already seeing delays in their spring planting due to wet cold weather.
Old crop UK Barley supply is looking increasingly tight. Early indications suggest the 2026/2027 plantings could fall to around 6MT which would be the lowest level seen in 14 years.
Global Maize production for 2026/2027 is projected to be down 17.3MT with major cuts seen in the US. Global consumption is forecast to be above production.
Global soya bean stocks remain well supplied at 125MT, up 10MT from last year.
Brazil are still expected to increase production from 172.5MT to 180MT which would be another record crop.
Although Erith is now crushing, domestic prices for Rapemeal remain firm for the short term.
