Market Overview
Global wheat markets continue to be dominated by the Black Sea conflict.
Continued attacks on the export infrastructure in both Russia and Ukraine has reduced grain exports considerably over the last few weeks.
Many reports suggest fixing damages made to transportation systems and ports such as Odesa will take months to repair.
Russia’s August wheat exports are anticipated to be around 2MT, almost half of last years export levels.
Ukraine has only exported 539KT of grain so far in August compared to 1.73MT this time last year.
Due to the closure of the port of Odesa, over 70 vessels are waiting near the Sulina Canal to reach the Ukrainian port of Danube. The canal can only handle 3 vessels per day so a bottleneck is being formed.
Waiting costs reach around $8000 per vessel and alternate routes are unable to compensate for the closure of Odesa.
Due to the prolonged dry weather seen across the UK this summer, the USDA cut UK wheat production back from 13.5MT to 12MT.
UK wheat futures have reached their highest levels since July 2023 and a £40/T rise since the start of July 2026.
Domestic wheat & barley availability has become tight as growers become reluctant sellers.
Global Maize prices have also found support. US crop ratings have fallen to 57% good/excellent.
On Friday, the Pro Farmer report suggested yields were well below the USDA estimations, which if true could lead to a drop in production of 16.99MT.
For Hi Pro Soya and Rapemeal, renewed Chinese buying, firmer vegetable oil prices and geopolitical headlines have offered support this week.
The USDA report for August still estimates the US to have a record soybean crop at 122.99MT. Brazil is still projected to produce a record 186MT.
Weather conditions over the next few weeks will be crucial in determining the actual North American crop figures.
Short term rapemeal prices have firmed due to the lower stocks and increased demand. This has also been supported by Chinese purchases of Canadian product.
