Market Overview
Wheat/Barley
The Black Sea Grain Corridor extension deadline is due to be completed by 19th March.
Talks are ongoing and an agreement is expected, however reports suggest the new deal will only be for 60 days. The previous two deals have been for 120 days.
Russia remain determined to use the deal as a tool to reduce the impact of other sanctions imposed upon them such as the movement and trade of their own grains and fertiliser.
If the deal were to be reduced to 60 days, a short term of support to global grain price is to be expected.
Throughout last week, competitive Russian exports, a bumper Australian harvest and rains across the US plains put pressure on global grain prices. UK Feed Wheat prices are currently trading at £214/T.
Barley continues to track the wider grain complex, trading at an £18 discount to wheat.
Maize
For maize, last weeks WASDE report showed reduced production, consumption and trade, resulting in higher ending stocks for the season.
The Argentinian maize crop was reduced by 7MT to 40MT due to ongoing drought conditions.
Brazil maize production remains at 125MT, a record crop.
Overall global production was reduced by 4MT. Key watch-points going forward will be the weather conditions in Argentina and if China come back into the market.
Hi Pro Soya/Rapemeal
The Brazil soybean crop is still estimated at a record 153MT by the USDA.
The Brazil soybean harvest is now at 48.9% complete, back from 60.5% this time last year.
Due to the drought conditions in Argentina, the USDA cut their March production estimate from 41MT to 33MT. Many private forecasts believe there will be further cuts made to this estimation going forward which will likely offer support to global prices.
Crop conditions continue to deteriorate also with 71% now rated ‘Poor/Very Poor’, up from 67% the previous week.
A record Australian rapeseed crop is currently being exported to the global market, pressuring prices.
