Market Overview
Wheat / Barley / Maize
The latest WASDE report lifted it’s forecast for world wheat stocks by more than the market was expecting.
The revision reflected upgrades to estimates for 2025/2026 harvests in several major exporters including the EU and Russia.
London Wheat Futures declined on Tuesday on the back of Ukraine peace hopes.
Ongoing talks to resolve the conflict will be a key watchpoint for wheat as it could remove risk premiums.
Argentina are due a record wheat crop which is estimated at 27.7MT for 2025/206 due to favourable weather conditions.
The EU 2025 barley crop increase by 5MT year-on-year to 62.5MT. Australia forecast a record crop at 15MT and Argentina have a large crop estimated at 5.5MT.
The UK barley crop is currently 6.5MT, down 0.7MT year-on-year and a seven year low. There is low farmer selling due to cheap prices and less planting taking place.
Global maize production sits at a record 754MT, up 52MT year-on-year.
December’s WASDE report has US maize production at 425MT, currently a record crop.
Looking forward, global maize supply remains ample.
Proteins / Fibres
The global oilseed complex came under pressure last week due to China’s lower than expected import of US soybeans and the approaching new crop of soybean harvest in Brazil.
Global soybean production remains at a record level, estimated at 422MT.
News of the likely EUDR postponement to 2027 continues to pressure global soybean and rapemeal markets.
The latest WASDE report showed that global rapeseed production was to increase by 3MT, with rises in Canadian, Australian and Russian output.
The Dollar has weakened with interest rate cuts in the US, making US products more favourable to buy.
