Market Overview
Wheat / Barley / Maize
Markets remain reactive to any news on Ukraine’s exports. It has been reported that Ukraine is exploring an option of creating a new ‘humanitarian corridor’ for grain shipments out of the Black Sea Region, using the west coast of Romania and Bulgaria.
Since the collapse of the grain corridor, reports suggest as of 16th August, 577KT of wheat had left Ukraine. August 2022 wheat exports totalled 883KT. For maize, exports have totalled 475.8KT for August 2023. Total maize exports for August 2022 were estimated at 1.54MT so the current maize exports are falling behind last years pace.
With the port of Odessa unable to contribute to exporting grain, Ukraine plans to improve the ports of Danube by increasing the tonnage & fleet capacity for grain transport.
US weather also remains a key focus with adverse heat conditions seen across the US Midwest which could reduce yields for maize. the US are expecting a bumper crop with the USDA estimating a production of 383.8MT, the second largest on record.
According the the AHDB, the UK winter wheat harvest was at 37% complete as of August 15th. This was behind the 5 year average of 56% complete at this stage.
Winter barley was reported at 99% complete as of August 15th. Meanwhile spring barley was reported at 24% complete, behind the five year average of 32%.
The USDA have recently cut the global barley crop by 3.2MT month on month.
Hi Pro Soya / Rapemeal
Weather forecasts in the US show little rain and high temperatures this week. With 38% of crops still in drought conditions and August a key month for crop development, eyes remain focused on how big the crop will be.
The USDA currently projects the 2023/2024 US Soybean crop at 49.15MT.
Political issues in Argentina have caused the Pesso to plummet, but the official rate is fixed with very few farms reported as selling.
The 2023/2024 global soybean production outlook remains favourable with an estimation at 258.66MT.
Canada have reported poor crop conditions for rapeseed with a 10% fall week on week. EU crop conditions have also been under pressure.
Australia are estimating a 30% fall in rapeseed production to 5.6MT. Despite this, global rapeseed markets, in particular the EU, still look well supplied.
